These races are obviously interesting to both the Democratic Party and to third parties, as evidenced by the relatively high donations and external spending. That spending has really heated up the races, with some fairly strong words back and forth. But we can’t say yet how it will affect the race, because there simply isn’t much public polling. Plus, the small size of these races makes them unpredictable. The financial numbers don’t show whether a candidate has, for example, knocked on every registered voter’s door or mounted a super-effective campaign to sway party influencers.
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